Wednesday, April 01, 2009

This Is Why It's Been So Quiet Over Here

Los Angeles, CA

While the economy is disintegrating and L.A.'s unemployment rate hovers around 12%, crime has gone... down?

Yep. Property crimes, like burglary, are down 6.4%. Violent crimes are down 4.9% The only rise? Robberies at 1.6% over last year.

Hell, even the Sheriff's department's seeing it. A 10% drop County-wide in violent crimes.

This isn't all wine and roses, of course. Yeah, we're seeing a steady decline, but it doesn't mean we still don't have a fuckload of problems. We've still had almost 6000 violent crimes this year, including homicides, rapes and assaults. Also, these numbers are a city-wide average. We've got double digit increases in Hollywood, for example.

Common wisdom says that as unemployment goes up so does crime. And I think it's still going to.

This is the calm before the storm. March 08 to January 09 was the biggest jump in unemployment from just over 5% to 12%. It's happened too fast. Folks haven't run out of all of their options, yet. The pressure cooker's still coming to a boil.

I'm hoping we pull ourselves out of this mess soon, but I don't think we will. I think it will be a couple of years before we see the unemployment rate get back to something more normal.

Give this six months to a year before the shit hits the fan. If things don't get better soon see these numbers go the other direction. My money is on a big spike around the holidays.

Please, everybody, prove me wrong.

1 comment:

Midtown Miscreant said...

I think you hit it on the head. Right now folks, some with dubious character, are still getting extended unemployment, scraping by on savings, etc. As shit gets tighter, crime will rise.